(legislation in preparation: Commission's proposal adopted on 27/11/2001)
(300 Kb PDF)
1. INTRODUCTION
Oil production in the EU has been on the increase over the last decade, due to the success of exploration in the North Sea. At the same time oil consumption has remained almost unchanged, primarily due to the phasing-out of oil as an energy source for non-transportation uses, thus compensating for strong growth in transportation oil consumption. In the coming twenty to thirty years EU production is expected to decline, whereas consumption will increase as substitution possibilities will be exhausted and transport demand is likely to continue to grow.
During the coming decades of increased import dependency world oil demand is also expected to show strong growth and the global distribution of known oil reserves leaves the Middle East OPEC members as the only possible suppliers to this increased demand. In addition, this scenario is out of step with the recognised necessity of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and particularly with the Kyoto commitments for industrialised countries to initiate their reduction programmes over the coming decade.
This is the backdrop against which the Commission€s Green Paper: Towards an European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply introduces the objective of 20% substitution by alternative fuels in the road transport sector by the year 2020 with the dual purpose of improving security of supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
This objective poses a challenge well beyond what has been asked from the car and oil industry in the past such as drastic reduction of emissions of conventional air pollutants, virtual elimination of lead and sulphur from automotive fuels or significant improvement of fuel efficiency against developments that would otherwise have led to increased fuel consumption.
Any radical changes in fuel supply or engine technology for road transport faces a number of problems. The population at large has got used to having at their disposal a car that has over the years become very cheap as has the fuel (particularly when compared to disposable income). Refuelling is necessary only for every 4-600 km (or more) available everywhere and done in a few minutes. The car serves purposes from short distance shopping by one person in the local supermarket to taking the family on the annual (or semi-annual) holiday to the other end of Europe. In addition virtually no safety restrictions exist for parking or otherwise placing the car in spite of it carrying a large amount of highly flammable liquid. Few people would be ready to compromise much on any of the advantages offered by today€s car. Freight transport has different criteria. As an economic sector subject to strong internal competition, cost and reliability are key factors. Any alternative fuel or engine technology will have to be made competitive in order to penetrate the market. On the other hand, long distance road transport is a single functional activity and refuelling points need not to be as close together as for passenger transport. However, their geographical coverage (throughout Europe) is essential.
The penetration potential for any alternative fuel for the future has to be evaluated against these criteria. Different alternatives will require different types and levels of investment in infrastructure and equipment. Replacing a few percent of diesel or gasoline with biodiesel or ethanol is the simplest, establishing plants to produce such alternative fuels being the only €long term€ investment. Fuel cells fuelled by hydrogen are the most complicated alternative, requiring alternative engine technology, as well as large investment in plants to produce the hydrogen and a totally new distribution system. Shifting to a hydrogen-based transport system is a major decision, which will only make sense as part of a large-scale, long-term strategy, in principle extending even beyond the EU.
The driving force behind long-term substitution of conventional diesel and gasoline is the need partly to improve the security of energy supply, partly to reduce the environmental impact, especially climate change, from the transport sector. Any long-term solution will, as a minimum, have to offer a reduction in oil dependency and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the most fuel-efficient vehicles running on conventional fuel. In addition, it must be required that such alternatives permit a continued reduction in emission of €conventional€ air pollutants from the vehicles.
The combined requirement of comfort and performance of the car, security of supply of the fuel, low environmental impact and high level of safety and continued low overall cost of driving can in no way be fully met at any time. Future policy development will have to give higher priority to security of energy supply and fuel efficiency (lower greenhouse gas emission). An economic growth rate of 2-3% annually allows sufficient margin for transport cost to increase moderately for those who are not prepared to accept a reduction in car size or performance. This is particularly important in a transition period allowing for a change to a more sustainable transport sector. Penetration of any new transport technology is fundamentally dependent on broad availability of the fuel. Establishing an area covering fuel supply systems is very expensive and only justified if there is a sufficiently high demand, i.e. penetration. This €chicken and egg€ situation makes any take-off difficult and implies that only on a sufficiently large level such as the EU-wide level is it realistic to imagine the introduction of alternative fuels with significant market shares.
On the basis of the consideration mentioned above the Commission sees three main potential alternative ranges of fuels that could each be developed up to the level of 5% or more of the total automotive fuel market by 2020:
In addition, the technology of hybrid cars, combining combustion and electric drives, offers a degree of fuel saving comparable to what alternative fuels may offer. These alternative fuels and technology are described below, along with other alternatives that do not look quite so promising yet, but might offer more limited contributions.
The present communication does not set out to deliver the definitive answers to the challenges outlined above. It does, however, try to identify an approach to be followed during the coming years necessary to allow the EU to achieve the medium-term goals of 20% substitution of conventional automotive fuel by 2020 and to do it in a way that sets the direction for the development of road transport systems in the decades following 2020.
To find similar reports, click on a keyword below:
Biogas
: Biomass & Bioenergy
: DE - Deutsch
: FR - Français
: Gas
: Hydrogen
: Liquid Biofuels
: Natural Gas
: Regulatory framework
: Renewable Energy Sources & Systems
: Sustainable Transport
Complete the Questionnaire to add your organisation to this website